U.S.-President elect Donald Trump said on Dec. 1 he has selected retired general James Mattis as his defense secretary. In May 2015, Mattis said Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and military support for separatists in Donbas are “much more severe, more serious” than the U.S. and the EU are treating them.
Zenon Zawada: As we expected as early as September, Trump is appointing both Russia hawks and doves to his foreign policy team. Michael Flynn, Trump’s national security advisor, could be considered a pro-Russia dove while Mattis is a hawk against Russian aggression.
We believe these two approaches could result in a compromise on resolving the Ukraine conflict, in which sanctions related to Crimea are lifted while the conflict in Donbas is frozen in order to further enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities. This has strong potential to establish peace, however temporary it may be.
At the same time, the risk remains that these two camps could be at odds with each other and could fail to agree on a consistent Russia policy. In which case, Trump won’t be any more successful in dealing with Russian aggression than his predecessors.