Trump wins U.S. presidential election

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential elections held on Nov. 8, according to results published by the U.S. Federal Election Commission. Trump is confirmed to have won at least 276 electoral votes, while Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton won 218.

Zenon Zawada: This outcome is in line with what we were anticipating on the eve of elections. Contrary to the widespread view, we do not think Trump’s victory is a disaster for Ukraine. U.S. foreign policy towards Ukraine will not change for at least a year. No matter what overtures he makes to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump will not be able to implement any major changes because the U.S. Congress firmly supports sanctions for the illegal annexation of Crimea and the military aggression in Donbas.

That being said, Trump made clear that he is interested in a blank state with Putin and forming military cooperation to fight and destroy the Islamic State. Trump has indicated that he would be willing to overlook the Crimean annexation, and possibly even work to remove the related sanctions. About half of the Republican Party remains hostile towards Trump. However, if he has a successful first year and maintains strong public support, most of the Republicans are likely to gradually fall in line with his policies. As we’ve been saying for months, Crimea-related sanctions could begin to be lifted in the second half of 2017.

Although it’s dangerous to allow Putin to violate the fundamentals of international law, a compromise on Crimea in the next two years – on behalf of the U.S. and the EU – could lead to peace in Ukraine, however tenuous. In exchange for compromise on Crimea, occupied Donbas could be returned to the Ukrainian state, or it could become a frozen conflict. In either case, even a bad peace is something that no investor would oppose.