Tymoshenko continues to lead presidential election campaign

Yulia Tymoshenko, who is campaigning on a platform of
peace and economic development, continues to lead the Ukrainian presidential
election campaign, according to the latest poll released on Nov. 1. Tymoshenko
has 13.4% support, compared to 7.6% for protest candidate Volodymyr Zelenskiy,
7% for Ukrainian President Poroshenko and 7% for the reforms-oriented Anatoliy
Grytsenko.

Six parties would qualify for Ukraine’s parliament,
according to the same poll. Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party has 13.9% support, the
Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc has 7.2%, Grytsenko’s Civic Position has 6.9%,
Zelenskiy’s People’s Servant has 6.4%, the president’s Solidarity party has
5.9% and the populist Radical Party has 5.2%. Pro-Western forces have 38.3%
support, compared to 7.2% for the Russian-oriented forces.

Zenon Zawada: This poll
confirms that the second-round runoff in the presidential election (likely to
occur in April) will most likely be between Tymoshenko and Poroshenko.
Zelenskiy has yet to actively campaign, indicating that his candidacy can’t be
taken seriously yet. The poll also reveals that Poroshenko has yet to score any
major electoral dividends from his campaign to gain canonical status for the
Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Kyiv Patriarchate. He may gain more support once the
process becomes active in the winter and faces resistance from Moscow
Patriarchate loyalists.

This poll also reveals the collapse of the For Life
party, which split in September between a centrist group (led by media mogul
Vadim Rabinovich) that wants to unite with the Opposition Bloc, and a radical
faction (led by Kharkiv MP Yevgeny Murayev) that embraces a strictly Putinist
position. However, Ukraine’s Russian-oriented forces are in the process of
realigning and the landscape will change dramatically ahead of the October
parliamentary vote.