Tymoshenko ratings drop reported by second poll this month

A second elections
poll released this month has reported that Yulia Tymoshenko’s lead in the
presidential race is slipping. About 13.2% of voters said they will vote for
her, compared to 7.8% for comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy, according to the poll
published on Sept. 25 by the Rating Sociological Group, a private firm that has
been conducted polls for more than a decade. It was conducted between Sept. 10
and 18 involving 2,500 respondents.

Another poll,
released on Sept. 14, said that Tymoshenko has 12.9% support, compared to 8.4%
for President Poroshenko. The poll – conducted between Aug. 30 and Sept. 9 of
10,005 respondents – was a joint project between the Kyiv International
Institute of Sociology, the Razumkov Center, and the SOCIS Center for
Sociological and Marketing Research.

Early this month,
polls were reporting Tymoshenko’s lead to have widened as much nine percentage
points over her nearest rival, which was often former defense minister Anatoliy
Grytsenko. Tymoshenko’s support was as high as 17.8%, according to the poll
conducted by the Kucheriv Fund/Razumkov Center.

Zenon Zawada: In order to win re-election, it
will be critical for President Poroshenko to chip away at Yulia Tymoshenko’s
lead as much as possible, as soon as possible. That way, if Tymoshenko alleges
vote fraud, Poroshenko will be able to claim that her small lead in the
polls-ahead of the elections- doesn’t back up her claims. And that would reduce
the public’s willingness to engage in mass protests.

Therefore, we
believe it’s possible that the Poroshenko campaign is paying for polls to skew
the questions and results against Tymoshenko. The polls conducted by the
Kucheriv Fund/Razumkov Center, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology
and the International Republican Institute are considered to be most reliable.

What’s striking is
that two of these organizations were involved in polls this month that produced
starkly different results for Tymoshenko. To us, this also reveals that voter
sentiments and opinions are volatile, able to change dramatically as the
election campaign progresses.

At the same time, it’s entirely possible that Tymoshenko is
losing momentum as the Poroshenko campaign has intensified attacks against her
this month, particularly for allegedly having past ties to the Kremlin. Further
polls will be revealing.