Tymoshenko remains most popular politician in Ukraine

Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine’s former prime minister
and political prisoner, continues to lead the polls in the race for presidential
elections that are scheduled for March 2019. She has 12.1% support among those intending
to vote, followed by 10.2% for President Poroshenko, and 7.8% for former Defense
Minister Anatoliy Grytsenko. The poll, conducted between Dec. 15 and 19 of 2,004
respondents, didn’t include the possible candidacy of rock star Sviatoslav Vakarchuk,
who is currently studying at Stanford University in California. The poll was
conducted by the Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Fund in Kyiv and financed by
the Dutch Embassy in Ukraine.

Seven parties would qualify for Ukraine’s parliament
if elections were held now, two of which are Russian-oriented, according to the
same poll. Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party would earn 12.1% of votes, Poroshenko’s
Solidarity party has 9.2% support, the Russian-oriented For Life party has 8.8%,
Grytsenko’s party has 7.4%, the reforms-oriented Self Reliance party has 7.0%, the
populist Radical party has 6.0% and the Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc has 6.0%.
Pro-Western parties have 41.7% support, compared to 14.8% for the Russian-oriented
forces.

Zenon Zawada: Tymoshenko remains the main challenger
to Poroshenko, who will devote his campaign to attacking her, likely depicting her
as unstable and having dubious past ties to Russia and Putin. Sviatoslav Vakarchuk
is a leading candidate among the under-50 electorate, and he was excluded from the
poll because he said that he’s not interested in competing at the moment. At the
same time, the poll’s respondents ranked him as the most trusted public figure out
of a list that included all the leading politicians. 37.8% of respondents said they
trust Vakarchuk, compared to 19.6% for Tymoshenko and 15.8% for Poroshenko. And
we believe his possible campaign for president has high potential.

The Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc has dramatically
lost momentum, based on this poll. We expect the For Life party to be the leader
among the Russian-oriented electorate given that its leader, Rabinovich, is more
charismatic than Yuriy Boyko of the Opposition Bloc. Rabinovich frequently appears
on television on a network controlled by his party, which is another advantage.
It’s also possible that Rabinovich will merge his resources with the Opposition
Bloc.