Tymoshenko widens lead in presidential race

Former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko widened her
lead this summer in the presidential election campaign, according to the latest
poll by the Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Fund and Razumkov Center released
on Sept. 4. Of those intending to vote, 17.8% will cast their ballot for the
pro-Western populist Tymoshenko, compared to 13.3% in May. About 8.4% would
vote for the pro-Western former defense minister Anatoliy Grytsenko, and 7.9%
for President Petro Poroshenko. The presidential election is expected to take
place in late March.

The Poroshenko election campaign staff will try to
convince Ukrainian voters that he is exceptional and irreplaceable, the
pravda.com.ua news site reported on Sept. 3, citing anonymous sources in the
campaign. “Poroshenko is the only war commander, who renewed the Ukrainian army
and can challenge the aggressor,” said the staffer. “Secondly, Poroshenko is
the only diplomat who was able to unite the West against Putin.” The staff is
recommending the president meet with voters more often and discuss his
achievements, as well as avoid economic issues.

Poroshenko’s campaign hasn’t secured guarantees of
support from the People’s Front party, the pravda.com.ua site reported in the
same article. The People’s Front is the second-largest parliamentary faction led
by former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, National Security and Defense
Council Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov and Interior Minister Arsen Avakov. The
party is highly unlikely to return to parliament after the 2019 elections.

Zenon Zawada: The Poroshenko
campaign has the right approach in arguing to the public that he can’t be
effectively replaced by his challengers, as well as acknowledging that the
economy is his weakness. It also has to strike fear in the public that
Ukrainian independence may be lost if he’s not re-elected. We see these
approaches as his only hope of catching up to Tymoshenko in the six months
remaining.

The wider Tymoshenko’s lead, the harder it will be for
the president to prove that he achieved his election results fairly, whether in
the first round or the runoff. It’s already a given that she will complain of
abuse of state resources and vote fraud, so the president’s campaign will have
to offer firm evidence proving otherwise. 

The support (or lack thereof) from the People’s Front
party is significant largely because of the role Avakov can play as police
chief in overseeing the election process. It’s still not clear whether he has
reached a deal with the president behind the scenes. Avakov
recently criticized the president, alleging his administration helped organize
a protest against the anti-corruption prosecutor (who has made decisions to
Avakov’s advantage).