U.S. commander rates chance of Ukraine war at low-to-medium

The Commander of U.S. Forces in Europe Tod Wolters
appeared before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee on April 15. Voanews.com
reports that during the meeting, he assessed the chance of an invasion by the
Russian army in the next few weeks as “low to medium”. He also said that the
dynamic he’s observing leads him to believe that the probability of an invasion
is falling.

On April 14, CIA Director Bill Burns told the House
Intelligence Committee that while Russia might be trying to convey that the
country’s military might needs to be respected, the buildup “could provide the
basis for a limited military incursion.” Defense Intelligence Agency chief
Scott Berrier, who testified with Burns, stated that, “The Russians have
positioned themselves to give themselves options.”

The Department of Defense website also reported on
April 13 that Wolters told the Senate Armed Services Committee that at NATO,
“we deter, and, if deterrence fails, we’re prepared to respond to aggression
with the full weight of the transatlantic alliance.” He also praised
NATO’s ability to move large numbers of forces “qiuickly and over great distances.”

James Hydzik: The Russian
destabilization of Ukraine is working, to a degree. The pressure applied thus
far will interfere with shipping, lower demand for Ukrainian debt, and show the
Ukrainian president’s weakness. There is nothing new in this.

What is new is the seriousness with which the
threat is being taken among NATO countries, and, what seems from some angles to
be a robust response. It is not always so robust from other angles, such as
when U.S. President Joe Biden called Russian President Vladimir Putin. To the
Russian media, at least, the fact that Biden made the call shows that Russia
won that round. NATO countries need to also position themselves to give
themselves options. For as long as both sides see that they have these options,
we can agree with Wolter’s short-term assessment of invasion (by units of
regular soldiers) at ‘low-to-medium’, while reserving judgment on the dynamic.