The U.S. and the EU have an action plan in the event of a full-scale Russian military invasion of Ukraine, U.S. State Department Sanctions Policy Coordinator Daniel Fried said in an interview with Voice of America broadcast on Aug. 31. The U.S. has discussed this plan with the leadership of Germany, France, Poland and Great Britain. Also, in the event that the Russian government intensify its military aggression, the U.S. and the EU have the options of strengthened sanctions, he said.
Zenon Zawada: We don’t expect any major steps from the Russian leadership until the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 8. If Republican candidate Donald Trump wins, Russian President Putin can look forward to pressure being removed on Crimea, including the likely lifting of related sanctions. It’s not clear if Trump would also relieve sanctions related to the Russian aggression in Donbas. We also expect Trump to intensify pressure on Ukraine to fulfill the Minsk accords and hold local elections in Donbas.
If Hillary Clinton wins however, Putin faces the prospect of sanctions being extended into 2017. If he determines that his government and his nation can withstand the sanctions for that year and even further, then we don’t expect any drastic moves such as a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But if he determines that the sanctions could cause severe destabilization, we can’t rule out any drastic measures.