U.S. presidential elections to be held today

The United States will hold its presidential elections
today, in which President Donald Trump will face off against former U.S. Vice
President Joe Biden. Unlike the 2016 election campaign, in which Trump’s
alleged collusion with Russia was a central issue, this campaign has barely
mentioned Russia at all after much of the allegations were disproven in an
investigation conducted by special counsel Robert Mueller.

Instead, Trump has spent recent weeks attacking Joe
Biden for his alleged involvement in corruption in Ukraine, accusing him of
having full knowledge of his son Hunter’s questionable involvement in the
Burisma natural gas company, based on email evidence gained by the nypost.com
news site.

During the debates, Trump also pointed out that Biden
publicly boasted in January 2018 of blackmailing then-President Poroshenko with
USD 1 billion in Western loans to fire his prosecutor general, Viktor Shokin.
In his turn, Trump was impeached in December 2019 for merely hinting at a quid
pro quo for the release of U.S. funds with President Zelensky.

Concorde Capital boldly expected Trump’s election victory in 2016,
which rode the wave of a right-wing populism trend in Europe, particularly the Brexit
vote in June 2016. Trump ended up leading among the biggest economic growth
periods in the post-World War Two era, before the gains were erased by the
emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Zenon Zawada: We expect
Trump will have similar results to his 2016 electoral college performance of
304 votes (compared to 227 votes for his opponent). The same IBD/TIPP poll that
hinted at Trump’s victory in 2016 indicates a similarly tight race in 2020, in
which the Democratic candidate has a slight lead in the popular vote. Yet for
the electoral college, “Trump has widened his advantage among rural voters and
nosed ahead among independents.”

White working-class voters will continue to provide
the base for supporting Trump as the candidate most capable of renewing
economic growth and restricting immigration. Equally important to them is law
and order after this year’s Leftist riots throughout the country. Trump also
partly fulfilled one of his biggest campaign promises, having built 400 miles
of wall on the U.S.-Mexico border.

Regardless of the results, we expect the Democratic
Party to follow the advice of Hillary Clinton and “not concede under any
circumstances,” alleging vote fraud and vote suppression schemes. And the party
will activate its protestors, both non-violent and violent. There is also the
realistic possibility that vote tallies will be difficult to establish
immediately in the most contested states. So it’s possible an official winner
of the elections won’t be declared for days, if not weeks or months.

Although Trump has revealed personal sympathies for
Russia and indifference towards Ukraine, he has maintained most sanctions and
has allowed some to be added since 2016. His actions to support Ukrainian
independence have been not any less than those of his predecessor Barack Obama,
having most famously authorized the sale of Javelin anti-tank missile systems
to the Ukrainian army. So we expect consistent U.S. support for Ukraine
regardless of who is elected president.