Ukraine 2017 real GDP grew 2.1%, central bank estimates
2 February 2018
Ukraine’s 2017 GDP grew 2.1% yoy, according to a
provisional estimate of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) published on Feb. 2.
Among its findings was that losses from suspended trade with the Russian-occupied
territories of Donetsk and Luhansk amounted to 0.9pp, instead of an initially
projected 1.3pp, as metallurgical plants were able to shift to new suppliers
promptly. Favorable external conditions and boosted household demand also
played a role.
The NBU estimates 4Q17 GDP growth at 1.5% yoy,
compared to 2.1% yoy in 3Q17, with the decline resulting from a drop in
agricultural crop production.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The NBU’s
2017 estimate is close to our expectation of 1.9% yoy growth. An improving service
sector in the last quarter remained strong enough to compensate for a
significant drop in agriculture and industry.
In 2018, we see GDP growth accelerating to 3.5% yoy
fueled by consumption, investments, and a low comparative from industry and farming.
