Ukraine 9M18 budget revenue rises 15% yoy, below plan

Ukraine’s 9M18 state budget revenue rose 15.2% yoy to
UAH 675 bln, which is 2.7% below plan, the State Treasury provisionally
reported on Oct. 1. Net tax revenue increased 16.0% yoy to UAH 286 bln (0.7%
above plan), while customs revenue rose 11.8% yoy to UAH 240 bln (1.5% below
plan). Other budget revenue surged three times yoy to UAH 81.2 bln (14.2% below
plan).

In September alone, net tax revenue increased 4.3% yoy
(vs. 8.8% growth in August) to UAH 24.8 bln, which is 4.4% below plan. The
slower growth of net tax revenue was due to increased VAT reimbursement, which
jumped 28.9% yoy in September (vs. 4.0% yoy growth in August).

Customs revenue increased 16.9% yoy to UAH 30.5 bln, which
is 1.1% above plan. Other budget revenue in September surged 42.8% yoy to 2.0
bln, which is 52.6% yoy. September state budget of UAH 67.1 bln fulfilled the
plan.

Local budgets’ 9M18 revenue increased 17.3% yoy to UAH
174 bln, outperforming plan by 0.7%. Social payments (personal income tax and
pension fund contributions paid by employers) jumped 26.8% yoy to UAH 164 bln.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: An earlier
harvest this year resulted in a seasonal shift in exports by Ukraine’s
agricultural producers. This produced a significant yoy jump in September VAT
reimbursement, slowing the growth of net tax receipts. Meanwhile, relatively
high growth in customs revenue helped budget revenue reach plan in September.

If customs revenue growth is maintained throughout
4Q18, the 2018 state budget revenue plan is likely to be fulfilled.