Ukraine aid package being prepared by EU, U.S.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met with Ukrainian opposition leaders in Munich on Feb. 1, agreeing on concrete steps to emerge from the crisis, said Petro Poroshenko, a leading opposition politician. The EU and U.S. are working on a financial aid package, which may include investments, to support the transition of a new temporary government that will prepare political and economic reforms ahead of the 2015 presidential election, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton told the Wall Street Journal in an interview published on Feb. 3. The aid will be “not small” and won’t require an IMF loan agreement, she said.

The EU Foreign Affairs Council will discuss sanctions against Ukrainian leaders at a Feb. 10 meeting, said Fatherland Deputy Party Chair Hryhoriy Nemyria after meeting with Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, reported the Interfax Ukrayina news agency on Feb 2. Sanctions will be discussed after Ashton returns to Ukraine this week to meet with the Ukrainian leadership after visiting last week. Behind the scenes, the EU is gathering information from Ukrainian leaders on the consequences should the situation spin out of control, Nemyria said, adding the EU leadership is concerned about the government considering imposing a state of emergency. “EU representatives also touched upon the theme of Ukraine’s federalization and the potential consequences,” he said. “Dividing Ukraine is viewed as a threat to solving the crisis.”

Ashton met with opposition leaders at the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 1 after which she expressed deep concern about the situation in Ukraine. “I am deeply alarmed by the violence and incidents of intimidation and torture,” said a statement released on the European Commission website. “I am particularly disturbed by the harsh treatment and torture of Dmytro Bulatov, as well as information about attempts to arrest him in his hospital bed.”

U.S. President Barack Obama told a video conference on Feb. 1 that he hopes “a more legitimate” government will be formed in Ukraine. “There should be a path to restructure the government in Ukraine in a way that allows the opposition and people on the street to participate in preparing a democratic process that will create a more legitimate and single government,” he said. “It won’t be easy but we’re trying to help in negotiations on the path to the goal.” Ukrainians see the EU as partners in a transition to free markets and don’t want the government to end their integration to a freer society behind closed doors, he said.

Restrictions on freedom of speech and protest are counterproductive and the government can’t act along the old rules that don’t take into account the hopes of average people, he said. “When there’s the Internet, smart phones, Google, technology and information, people want to participate in determining their own fate,” he said. “Information can’t be restricted, as earlier. I hope Ukraine’s government will recognize this and everything will be resolved peacefully,” he said.

Yanukovych hasn’t done enough to resolve Ukraine’s crisis, Kerry said on Jan. 31, as reported by the Associated Press. “President Yanukovych hasn’t proposed the reforms and common future that would give the opposition the opportunity to feel as though they can sit at the negotiating table on a lawful basis,” he said. Further violence that goes uncontrolled is in no one’s interest, he said. Kerry had a telephone conversation with Ukrainian opposition leaders on Feb. 1, after which he called for the government to arrest and punish all those responsible for the violence in recent weeks.

Zenon Zawada: We agree with the widely held opinion that a government of technocrats would be the best option in resolving the current mess. However, it will be difficult to convince Yanuokvych to abdicate the presidency no matter how attractive the Western aid package is. Moreover, he has the full support of the Russian government, which gives him more reason to cling to power. The opposition leaders and Western leaders discussed the holding of presidential elections in March 2015. But in our view, they are unlikely to resolve the crisis given that Yanukovych will be competing again. His victory, even if declared by an unbiased technocrat government, would be unacceptable for Ukraine’s pro-Western populace.

So far, we haven’t heard any realistic proposals to convince Yanukovych to step down from Ukrainian politics. Moreover, a poll released on Jan. 31 showed that he remains the single most popular politician, though he has lost his lead over Vitali Klitschko and Poroshenko, whose standing has jumped in the polls recently. We recognize that the three leading pro-EU opposition candidates have far more support combined than Yanukovych, any of which would defeat him in a runoff. Yet at the same time, we see why his entourage is able to form a rational basis to keep fighting the opposition.