Ukraine asks Russia to confirm no intention of new military aggression

The Federation Council of Russia unanimously approved on Sept. 30 the use of Russian Armed Forces abroad at the request of President Vladimir Putin, reported the RIA Novosti news agency. The Council didn’t specify where the military would be deployed though news reports later in the day confirmed lethal air bombings conducted in the northern regions of Syria. Earlier that day, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad appealed to Russia with a request to offer military aid.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry issued a Sept. 30 statement expressing its deep concern regarding the Federation Council’s decision to allow Russia to deploy its military abroad. The statement asked the Russian government to confirm that it has no intention to use its newly granted authority against Ukraine, it will consistently fulfill the obligations of the Minsk accords and it will immediately remove its Armed Forces from Ukrainian territory.

“An analogous decision by the Russian Federation on March 1, 2014 led to the occupation and annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol and caused an unprecedented security crisis in Europe,” the statement said. “We view the aggressor-state’s latest carte blanche on using armed forces, against the backdrop of a lengthy aggression against Ukraine, as a threat to national security and a step that undermines a peaceful resolution in accordance with the set of measures to implement the Minsk Accords ahead of the Oct. 2 summit in Paris in the Normandy format.”

Putin submitted his request in a “tacit regime” to the Federation Council as a political cover for his military, which has already been fighting on behalf of Assad for more than a month, said on Sept. 30 Oleksandr Turchynov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, as reported by its press center. The text of Putin’s request is not available to the public, he pointed out. “So it can be assumed that it’s not restricted to the territory of Syria and danger could await any country,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: As we’ve reported, Putin has two options in Donbas: either back out gradually or conduct a full-scale invasion before the sanctions begin to cripple his government. It’s been widely assumed that Putin can’t afford the second option. On the other hand, in Syria he will certainly be compensated by Assad for his military assistance. In light of these considerations, we don’t think Putin’s military involvement in Syria automatically implies an escalation of warfare in Ukraine. We can’t rule it out, but at the same time, we don’t view a significant escalation as likely.