Ukraine budget revenue drops 9% yoy in 5M20

Ukraine’s state budget revenue dropped 9.0% yoy to UAH
388.2 bln in 5M20, which is 10.1% below plan, the State Treasury provisionally
reported on June 1. Net tax revenue rose 4.8% yoy to UAH 180.7 bln (4.3% below
plan) amid 0.7% yoy growth in gross tax revenue and a 9.5% yoy fall in VAT
reimbursement. Customs revenue plummeted 19.4% yoy to UAH 103.4 bln (24.7%
below plan).

Local budgets’ fiscal revenue improved 1.2% yoy to UAH
112.5 bln in 5M20, which is 9.8% below plan. Social payments (pension and other
social fund contributions paid by employers) advanced 6.0% yoy to UAH 113.0
bln.

In May alone, state budget revenue declined 29.6% yoy
to UAH 73.4 bln, which is 2.2% below plan. Net tax revenue declined 8.5% yoy to
UAH 43.2 bln (9.0% above plan) amid a 8.3% yoy drop in gross tax revenue and a
7.3% yoy decline in VAT reimbursement. Customs revenue fell 32.2% yoy to UAH 18.6
bln (14.2% below plan).

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The
situation with budget collections in May deteriorated significantly. The
decline of customs revenue deepened amid plummeting imports. Meanwhile, the
situation with tax revenue remains decent as the burden of VAT reimbursement
has slackened amid declining exports.

The situation with budget collections in May is not
likely to improve in June. Customs collections will remain a problem as imports
are likely to stay at their lows.