Ukraine budget revenue rises 12% in 1H21

Ukraine’s state
budget revenue provisionally rose 12.2% yoy to UAH 582.8 bln in 1H21,
outperforming the plan by 6.5%, the State Treasury reported on July 2. Net tax
revenue increased 7.9% yoy to UAH 290.9 bln (6.2% above the plan) amid 6.1% yoy
growth in gross tax revenue and a 0.2% yoy decline in VAT reimbursement.
Customs revenue jumped 39.6% yoy to UAH 174.6 bln (4.8% above the plan).

Local budgets’
fiscal revenue improved 20.8% yoy to UAH 163.0 bln in 1H21, which is 2.5% above
the plan. Social payments (pensions and other social fund contributions paid by
employers) advanced 19.5% yoy to UAH 165.0 bln.

In June alone, state
budget revenue declined 18.7% yoy to UAH 106.7 bln, which is 15.9% above the
plan. Net tax revenue dropped 43.0% yoy to UAH 50.8 bln (6.1% above the plan)
amid a 37.6% yoy decline in gross tax revenue and a 3.2% yoy increase in VAT
reimbursement. Customs revenue surged 44.6% yoy to UAH 31.3 bln (9.4% above the
plan).

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: A very high comparative base from
June 2020 (when
budget revenue surged 64% yoy) resulted in a year-on-year decline
in tax collection last month. Recall, the tax administration made an effort
in collecting revenues
in June to pick up after the fallout of the lockdown of March-May 2020. The
June 2021 decline was
apparently expected by the government. Meanwhile, the customs revenue continues
growing at a high pace.

The higher
comparative base of 2H20 promises fewer swings in year-on-year changes in
budget revenue in the upcoming months.