Ukraine budget revenue surges 29% in September
3 October 2013
Ukraine’s state budget revenue surged 28.9% yoy to UAH 33.0 bln in September, which brought 9M13 revenue to UAH 250.6 bln (+1.7% yoy), the state Treasury reported on October 2.
Alexander Paraschiy: The sharp increase in state revenue came as a real surprise. The economy remains sluggish and unlike July, there is no statistical effect to explain a two-digit revenue jump. Without detailed data, we suspect direct NBU transfers and a rise VAT and import duties (due to an increase in imports) were the key drivers. However, they would have had to have been unusually robust to push state revenues higher by UAH 7.4 bln yoy in just one month (the strongest monthly growth since December 2012).
Despite the impressively positive September result, we remain skeptical about year-end fiscal prospects. As we observed this summer, revenue can be very volatile and September’s strong positive result (similar to +15.7% yoy in July) might be followed by an even stronger slump in state collections in October (-18.7% yoy in August). Against this backdrop, we are keeping our forecast of zero yoy growth in budget revenue in 2013 and an effective state deficit at 4% of GDP this year.
