Ukraine central bank projects 2.4% GDP growth in 2016

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) projects 2.4% yoy real GDP growth in 2016, according to its release on Sept. 24.  For 2015, the NBU projects an 11.5% yoy GDP decline, Deputy NBU Head Dmytro Solohub told a Sept 24 press conference.

The World Bank projects 1.0% yoy GDP growth in 2016 in Ukraine and 12.0% yoy GDP decline in 2015, according to the Interfax news agency.

Alexander Paraschiy: GDP prospects for 2015 look more or less clear at the moment. The effect of the low comparative base will improve statistics in 2H15 and, as a consequence, almost all the GDP estimates are very close to each other (we project 10.4% yoy GDP decline in 2015). At the same time, economic developments in 2016 are a big question mark, though a fast recovery is not on the agenda. Falling commodity prices at the global markets and shrinking demand in the region due to Russia’s economic problems do not offer any grounds for optimism. Against this backdrop, we see Ukrainian GDP resulting in near zero (+0.6%) growth in 2016 with a positive trend starting only in 2H16. The World Bank has quite similar view on Ukraine’s future. Still, the NBU seems to stick closer to the IMF projection of 2.0% GDP growth in 2016 to be in line with the country’s main donor.