29 October 2014
The coalition agreement proposed by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko includes a list of legislation that needs to be submitted to parliament, reported on Oct. 28 the Ukrayinska Pravda news site, citing anonymous sources. Legislative items can be submitted by the government, president or deputies and must be approved by an executive reforms committee, which is currently led by Dmytro Shymkiv, a Presidential Administration deputy head, the report said. The agreement gives the opposition the parliamentary vice chairmanship and several committee chairs but eliminates quotas for deputy ministers, the report said.
The People’s Front leadership doesn’t agree with some governing approaches by the Poroshenko Bloc, Ukrayinska Pravda reported on Oct. 28, citing its anonymous sources. This morning, party representatives are supposed to offer their positions as to forming the next coalition, the report said.
The Self-Reliance party, which finished third in the parliamentary elections, has yet to begin participating in the coalition talks, said on Oct. 28 Andriy Sadovyi, its leader. It will consider its parliamentary alliances based on tasks that the next government must fulfill, not quotas for positions, he wrote on his Facebook page. Sadovyi said he’s already met with Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko following the elections.
After almost 98 percent of the votes counted from the Oct. 26 parlaimentary elections, representatives of Poroshenko Bloc will likely gain about 132 seats in the new parliament, the People’s Front will have 82 MPs and the Self-Reliance party will occupy 33 seats, we estimate. The Opposition Bloc will have 29 seats, Oleh Liashko’s Radical Party will earn 22 seats and the Fatherland party will have 18, we estimate. 106 elected representatives of single-mandate districts don’t belong to any of the above-listed parties, though we see many of them joining Poroshenko’s or Yasenyuk’s parliamentary factions, as well as the Opposition Bloc.
The parliamentary coalition will need to consist of at least 226 MPs. It can be easily formed with the Poroshenko Bloc, People’s Front and Self-Reliance factions (which collectively amount to 248 MPs); or it can be based on the Poroshenko Bloc and People’s Front (who collectively have 215 seats, based on the current results) if at least 11 independent single-mandate winners will join their factions.
Zenon Zawada: So far there’s nothing surprising or alarming about the coalition talks that are under way. Though we expect Self-Reliance to join, it’s possible a coalition will emerge just between the Poroshenko Bloc and the People’s Front led by Yatsenyuk. We expect business as usual, with the Cabinet posts being filled according to quotas (which is standard practice in Europe), despite Poroshenko’s claims that won’t happen. If deputy ministers and other posts are truly not appointed based on quotas, then we expect such a prerogative will be shifted to the top officials in the respective state bodies.