Ukraine confirms 0.1% GDP growth in 1Q16
22 June 2016
The Ukrainian government left unrevised its 1Q16 GDP growth estimate of 0.1% yoy, the State Statistics Service confirmed on June 21. Private consumption fell 2.1% yoy, government consumption was unchanged year-on-year and investments in fixed assets increased 4.2% yoy. Real imports fell 7.2% yoy and real exports dropped 3.8% yoy.
Ukarine’s nominal GDP for the first quarter was reported at UAH 453.2 bln, up 20.7% yoy.
Alexander Paraschiy: The structure of 1Q16 GDP growth shows contradictory signs. On the one hand, we see reviving investment, with growing machinery imports confirming this trend. On the other hand, the official statistics report falling private consumption while retail trade data (+3.6% yoy for 1Q16) tell us that there should be consumption growth instead. Overall however, the general tendency in GDP components is positive, especially considering the numbers are much better than in 4Q15. Since the general tendency is close to our initial view, we are leaving our GDP growth forecast at 0.9% yoy for 2016.
