Ukraine continues its ATO, Russia talks more on military invasion

Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu reported on April 24 that the Russian army started large-scale military exercises on the border with Ukraine, according to Interfax. Shoigu clarified that this was a response to the anti-terrorist operation (ATO) of Ukrainian security forces in Donetsk region, which Ukraine activated earlier in the day. According to a Facebook report of Ukraine’s Interior Affairs Minister Arsen Avakov, the ATO would not be stopped due to a higher risk of a Russian invasion.  Following the operation, Ukrainian special forces retook a couple of block-posts in the city of Slavianks and killed five terrorists, Ukraine’s acting president reported. Still, the city is controlled by separatists and remains the main headache for Ukrainian special forces. 

At the same time, the risk of Russia’s invasion seems to have increased considerably, as increasingly more Russian politicians are voicing the need of invasion. Valeriy Shniakin, a Russian senator, said that upper house of the Russian parliament may consider sending peacekeepers to South-Eastern Ukraine, Inzvestiya newspaper reported today. “We need to sit at the negotiating table Russia, the U.S., the EU and Ukraine to agree on how to enter the peacekeepers”, Shniakin said. Vitaliy Churkin, Russia’s ambassador to the U.N., stated that Russia may enact the deceleration it received from its parliament to use its army on Ukrainian territory, if events in South-Eastern Ukraine will develop under a worst-case scenario, ITAR-TASS reported on April 25. 

The same day, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned Russia that “the window to change the course is closing”. He further highlighted the fact that Russia had not taken “a single step“ toward de-escalation of conflicts in Eastern Ukraine. “We are ready to act”, he added.

Alexander Paraschiy: Russia’s response to activated anti-terrorist efforts in Ukraine’s eastern regions suggests that Ukrainian special forces started doing right things there. Good development is that hot spots in Donetsk and Luhansk regions have been localized and their number is not increasing. We believe Ukraine’s government will try to avoid any fierce attacks on separatists in eastern regions to not annoy Russia and prevent any military invasion. We do not believe that Russia will invade in the coming days as it does not want to face stricter sanctions from the west and its government understands that Russian army will have no support from local population there. At the same time, we do not expect significant de-escalation in the region, given that Russia’s minimum goal there is to disrupt presidential elections scheduled for May 25.