Ukraine CPI jumps 10.8% m/m in March

Consumer prices jumped 10.8% m/m (45.8% yoy) in March vs. 5.3% m/m (34.5% yoy) for the previous month, according to Ukraine’s state statistics released on Apr. 6. Speeding up were Foodstuff prices (to 15.6% m/m from 5.7% m/m in February) and healthcare prices (9.7% m/m from 4.5% m/m in February). At the same time, other key CPI items slowed down: transportation tariffs slowed to 7.4% m/m (from 16.4% m/m in February), education prices increased only 2.0% m/m (+4.1% m/m) and utility tariffs slowed down to 1.1% m/m (+1.6% m/m).

Alexander Paraschiy:Hryvnia devaluation and panic sentiments at the foodstuff market in early March are the main reasons for the foodstuff price upsurge and subsequently for the CPI jump throughout the month. Remarkably, fuels and transportation costs slowed down significantly which reflects the mitigating effect of hryvnia decline on prices last month.  At the same time, due to much higher than expected CPI hike in March we once more have to revise our CPI forecast for 2015 up to 34.3% yoy (25.8% YTD) vs. +30.7% yoy (+23.8% YTD) as we previously estimated.