Ukraine drafts new plan to resolve war in Donbas

A new plan to resolve the war in Donbas – based on a
general timeline to end fully the fighting and demilitarize the region by
spring 2021 – has been drafted by the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral
Contact Group in Minsk, its head, Leonid Kravchuk, told the Interfax-Ukraine
news agency in an interview published on Nov. 4. “That is, all armed
formations, mercenaries, armaments – everything should be withdrawn from this
territory and illegally armed formations should be dissolved. And this needs to
be done in early 2021,” Kravchuk said. Once that is accomplished, Ukraine would need to regain control of its border with Russia in the contested territory. The plan also calls for local elections
to be held on March 31. Besides arranging these elections,
legislation is also needed to be able to prosecute those guilty of war crimes,
he said.

Kravchuk called for a meeting of the Normandy Four
leaders by the end of this year in order for all sides to agree to the plan,
particularly the conditions for local elections. The Ukrainian delegation will
also seek to secure full and unconditional access of international
organizations, including the Red Cross, to all war prisoners by the middle of
November, he said. All final exchanges of war prisoners are to occur no later
than Dec. 15, according to the plan. Ukraine also seeks to increase the
membership of the OSCE special monitoring mission by 1,500 by mid-December,
also ensuring the mission full access to the region. Ukraine will also seek to
cancel the Russian order simplifying the procedure for gaining Russian
citizenship for Donbas residents, as well as the documents gained as a result.
The plan will be submitted on Nov. 5 to Heidi Gray, the OSCE representative to
the Trilateral Contact Group.

The Trilateral Contact Group has agreed upon four
additional locations along the Donbas separation line to conduct armed forces
withdrawals, Viktor Hanushchak, the acting commander of the Joint Forces
Operation, told a Nov. 4 press briefing. Three of the locations –
Slovianoserbsk, Petrvika and Nyzhnyoteple – are in the Luhansk region, while
the fourth – Hryhorivka – is in the Donetsk region. “The situation remains
under control after withdrawals at the locations of Stanytsia Luhanska, Zolote
and Petrivske,” he said, as reported by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Zolote
and Stanytsia Luhanska are in the Luhansk region, while Petrivske is in the
Donetsk region.

The number of shootings in the Donbas region has fallen
by more than five times year-over-year since a ceasefire was declared on July
27, Joint Forces Operation deputy commander Bohdan Bondar told a press briefing
on Nov. 4. The number of casualties has plummeted by 14 times, he said.

Zenon Zawada: The latest
peace plan to emerge to resolve the warfare in Donbas is admirable, but it’s
not clear what incentive it offers Russia to halt its aggression that was
missing from previous attempts. From what we can tell, there are few new
initiatives here, which prompts a pessimistic outlook for the plan’s prospects.
Moreover, the Kremlin just scored big points in its hybrid war against Ukraine
with the Oct. 27 scandalous Constitutional Court ruling. So it has little
incentive to engage in peace at this point.

We are confident that the Normandy Four leaders
(including French President Macron and German Chancellor Merkel) will only
agree to a meeting if they receive advanced assurances from Russian President
Putin that he will agree to a peace plan. We also see little prospects for
this. But at least Zelensky is creating the impression of making a sincere
effort, which is important for his image, both with the Western public and with
his own citizenry.

The information about stable conditions at the
three withdrawal locations along the separation line, as well as reduced
shootings and casualties from a year ago, indicates that the armed conflict is
at its most stable condition since it erupted in April 2014. This positive
development can be considered among Zelensky’s distinguished accomplishments as
president.