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Ukraine election winners choosing coalition leaders, present their drafts

Ukraine election winners choosing coalition leaders, present their drafts

30 October 2014

The winning parties of Ukraine’s early parliamentary coalition have agreed to Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk remaining in his post and Volodymyr Groysman becoming the parliamentary chair, reported the Obozrevatel news site the morning of Oct. 30, citing its anonymous sources. The agreement is a compromise between the two parties that finished with the most votes: Yatsenyuk represents the People’s Front that finished in first in party list voting and Groysman represents the Poroshenko Bloc, which gained the most MP mandates.

 

The next Ukrainian parliament will consist of 423 deputies, 225 of which were selected by closed-list voting and 198 by single-mandate districts (elections didn’t occur in 27 districts occupied by Russian forces, including Crimea and the Donbas region). The six elected parties will form parliamentary factions. The Poroshenko Bloc will have at least 132 MPs, the People’s Front – 82 MPs, the Self-Reliance party – 33 MPs, the Opposition Bloc – 29 MPs, Oleh Liashko’s Radical Party – 22 MPs and the Fatherland party – 19 MPs. These factions will have the opportunity to recruit the 105 MPs who were independents or representatives of smaller parties elected by single-mandate districts.

 

The Ukrainian parties with the strongest election results – the Petro Poroshenko Bloc and the People’s Front – revealed their conditions for forming the coalition government on Oct. 29, which contrasted significantly. The Poroshenko Bloc’s 48-page proposal consists of forming a Coalition Council and Coalition Assembly, with seats assigned proportionately to each party, based on the number of their elected MPs. The Coalition Council would have wide decision-making authority within the framework of the coalition agreement and decisions by the coalition assembly, which will consist of all the coalition MPs. The Cabinet of Ministers will be responsible for fulfilling the coalition agreement, requiring each minister’s signature. Ministers failing to fulfill their responsibilities could be asked to resign.

 

The parliamentary coalition is required to initiate the dismissal of the Cabinet if it’s determined to have failed collectively in fulfilling the agreement. The parliamentary coalition is required to approve legislation drafted by the Cabinet to fulfill the agreement, otherwise it will be asked to liquidate itself. If the parliament votes to increase spending against the Cabinet’s wishes, it should vote to dismiss the Cabinet or liquidate itself. The agreement contains many other provisions regarding authority and the budget approval process, as well as the creation of such positions as a first vice prime minister for Euro-integration, who is responsible for coordinating the implementation of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement.

 

The Poroshenko Bloc’s coalition agreement identifies 13 spheres of reform: anti-corruption, judicial, decentralization, law enforcement, national defense, health, deregulation and business development, energy, utilities and maintenance, the financial sector, infrastructure and transportation, agriculture and the social sphere.

 

The People’s Front coalition agreement consists of 2.5 pages and lists 36 bills that need to be approved by the year end towards the goal of implementing the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. It proposes forming the Cabinet of Ministers in the same way as the European Commission is formed, with each party nominating a candidate to lead a ministry, each delivering a presentation and taking questions as to how they see reforms and their fulfillment.

 

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the party head, said he will only become prime minister under such a nominating process and suggested that parties submit their ministry nominations by Monday. Certain party members criticized the Poroshenko Bloc coalition proposal, particularly the creation of a coalition assembly and council that is essentially controlled by the president (with its majority representation).

 

The Self-Reliance party, which finished in third place, released a basic set of its demands for forming the coalition government, to which it has been invited by the Poroshenko Bloc and the People’s Front. It called for a public process in determining the nominees for the Cabinet of Ministers and other key posts, forming the coalition agreement involving only parliamentary factions (as opposed to independent MPs), equal representation in the coalition leadership and determining specific measures in fulfilling reforms. The Self-Reliance proposals are identical with those of the People’s Front, said elected MP Viktoria Siumar on Oct. 29.

 

Zenon Zawada: The report on a compromise reached between the two leading parties on two key government posts (Yatsenyuk as PM and Groysman as speaker) is an encouraging sign that their rivalry will be constructive, rather than counter-productive, as was the case in 2005. Yatsenyuk demonstrated during his tenure that he’s capable of conducting reforms when the will is there (and the government is up against the wall).

 

The 36-year-old Groysman is a rising star in Ukrainian politics and untested in such a weighty position as parliamentary speaker. However, his quick ascent in Ukrainian politics (becoming mayor of a city with a population of 370,000 at the age of 27) leads us to believe that he’s been nominated for his talents (besides his loyalty to the president).

 

The reported compromise on Yatsenyuk and Groysman sets a positive tone for reaching compromise in drafting the coalition agreement. Indeed, we don’t expect the other parties will agree to the terms set by the Poroshenko Bloc, which essentially gives it control of the coalition. So some watered-down version of its 48-page proposal will have to emerge. The proposal looks to be a serious attempt at conducting reforms, but only time will tell whether the political will is there to fulfill the ambitious goals. It’s worth noting that the mechanisms for fulfilling the many proposals remain vague, which is a widely held concern.

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