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Ukraine elections result in unexpectedly strong support for PM Yatsenyuk

Ukraine elections result in unexpectedly strong support for PM Yatsenyuk

27 October 2014

The Ukrainian government held early parliamentary elections on Oct. 26, with a turnout rate of 53 percent as reported by the Central Election Commission (CEC). Seven parties have qualified, according to 38 percent of the ballots counted (as of 10:40 a.m.) and based on four exit polls. Six of the seven parties support Euro-integration while the pro-Putin Opposition Bloc has earned 10 percent, according to the CEC tally so far, or between 8-10 percent, according to the four exit polls.

 

The elections were held in an optimistic and positive atmosphere, according to a joint statement released by U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt and Daniel Baer, the U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE. “Today’s voting was one more step on the democratic path of Ukraine,” the statement said. “We congratulate all those who were able to vote in the country and throughout the world and are awaiting an assessment of today’s voting from local and international observers.”

 

The Petro Poroshenko Bloc and People’s Front party led by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk are leading at 22 percent each, according to CEC results so far. Exit polls gave Poroshenko Bloc 22-23 percent and the People’s Front 20-22 percent. The Poroshenko Bloc was expected to earn at least 30 percent of the vote, according to pre-election polls, while support for the People’s Front hovered at only 8-10 percent.

 

The Self-Reliance party has earned 11 percent, according to the CEC tally so far, or between 11-14 percent, according to exit polls. Oleh Liashko’s Radical Party has earned 7.5% so far, or between 6.4-6.8 percent, according to exit polls. The Fatherland party led by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has earned 5.8 percent so far, or 5.5-5.7 percent, according to exit polls. The nationalist Freedom party has earned 4.7% percent so far, or 5.8-6.3 percent, according to exit polls.

 

The new Cabinet of Ministers won’t be formed based on the quota principle, in which the parties joining the coalition government are granted positions in proportion to their elections results, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told reporters on Oct. 26. “We have ten days to form the best government in Ukraine,” he said, adding that he’d like to have a constitutional majority of 300 votes in parliament to amend the Constitution.

 

Poroshenko didn’t comment on whom he saw as the new prime minister, stating it’s the responsibility of the parliament and coalition government. Yet he said he’d like to see the People’s Front party, led by the current Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, in the coalition government with his Poroshenko Bloc. He said he won’t invite the Opposition Bloc to the government.

 

The People’s Front, which finished with a similar result to the Poroshenko Bloc, will form the next coalition government on the basis that Yatsenyuk remains as prime minister, said an anonymous source within the party quoted by the Ukrayinska Pravda news site on Oct. 26. The party also wants Arsen Avakov to remain as interior minister, Oleksandr Shlapak to remain as finance minister and Pavlo Petrenko to remain as justice minister, the source said.

 

Zenon Zawada: The most significant result in the Oct. 26 elections was the unexpectedly strong performance of the People’s Front party, which we view as an attempt by the Ukrainian public to prevent Poroshenko from dominating politics, whose party had an unexpectedly weak result. Indeed the president has demonstrated an unpopular strategy of appointing to influential positions those in his closest entourage and relatives, many of which have proven to be wholly unqualified. The poor performance of former Defense Minister Valeriy Heletey and his subsequent sacking was particularly damaging for Poroshenko. So was the hryvnia’s devaluation in August and September.

 

The strong result for the People’s Front creates a strong counterbalance to the president in Yatsenyuk and his team, who are more hawkish on the war, in contrast to Poroshenko’s more dovish, “peace-at-any-price” approach. We find credible the report that the People’s Front will require that Yatsenyuk and his team remain in their posts in order to join the coalition government. Poroshenko has indicated in the past that he is willing to consider keeping Yatsenyuk as prime minister, but that could be another one of his sugary statements. Instead, we believe Poroshenko sees Yatsenyuk as a powerful contender.

 

Moreover, if the Poroshenko Bloc finishes in first place, we don’t expect it will cede the prime ministership, which has always been the top prize for the top finishing party in the parliamentary vote. Should the president keep Yatsenyuk under that condition, he would be demonstrating a refreshing break from the past of quota politics. Poroshenko said the next Cabinet won’t be formed based on quotas, so there’s some hope he might force this breakthrough in Ukrainian politics, though his promises have often proven to be inflated and hollow.

 

Ukraine’s next parliament will be European-oriented on paper, but the commitment to tectonic changes that Poroshenko claims to support hasn’t been proven by his political team. Yatsenyuk and his team impressed the world’s observers with their efforts to get the budget in shape in the spring and summer, but then sputtered out once the fall came along.

 

At this point, we don’t see a breakthrough in Ukraine’s biggest problem, which is corruption. As for its second-biggest problem, which is the war with Russia, it’s hard to anticipate what the new government’s approach on the war will be without knowing whether the People’s Front will be in the coalition government.

 

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