Ukraine-EU Association pact depends on Tymoshenko’s release, experts say

The Ukraine-EU Association Agreement depends on Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych arranging for the release of imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, a panel of experts said on October 1 at a Kyiv press conference organized by the Renaissance Foundation. Refuting the president’s claims that parliament needs to approve new legislation to arrange for her release, EU expert Valeriy Chaly said the legislation in place is sufficient to resolve the conflict and even provides for such an option as pardoning her, the Kommersant-Ukraine newspaper reported. “For the European elite, (Tymoshenko’s release) has gained such a degree of symbolism that if the Ukrainian government doesn’t take obvious steps in that direction, the Association Agreement won’t be signed,” said EU expert Oleksandr Sushko.

The expert panel lauded progress made by the government in recent months to approve and implement legislation that meets the 11 criteria outlined by the EU as necessary for signing the agreement. The successes include implementing a new Criminal Procedural Code, approving a law on the state prosecution and submitting draft legislation to parliament on judicial reform. Yet at the same time, significant legislative items have yet to be approved, they said, such as amending election legislation and reforming the nation’s police force, Chaly said.

The EU Foreign Affairs Council will decide on whether the EU leadership should sign an Association Agreement with the Ukrainian government on November 18. The agreement is scheduled to be signed at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on November 28-29.

Zenon Zawada: It’s obvious that the Ukrainian government will fall short of the 11 criteria outlined by EU Enlargement Commission Stefan Fule. But if the Association Agreement was dependent on them, the EU leadership wouldn’t have bothered extending its deadline for reaching a decision from October to November. So the Ukrainian experts are correct in stating that the agreement depends on what solution is found in the conflict involving Tymoshenko, which is actually the unofficial twelfth yet most important criterion.

The Ukrainian experts need to toe the EU official line so they are also insisting the pact is dependent upon Tymoshenko’s release. However we believe the Russian government wouldn’t be taking such drastic steps in dealing with Ukraine if the agreement’s signing was locked to Tymoshenko’s release. We believe the most likely scenario is that Tymoshenko will be released at the last minute for medical treatment in Germany, where she would need to undergo an operation, therapy, and rehabilitation, which could take at least a year and potentially remove her from the presidential campaign, satisfying Yanukovych.

However, a second likely scenario is the EU will sign the agreement without Tymoshenko’s release in order to save face and prevent the collapse of the Eastern Partnership program. The agreement could then be rejected during the ratification process, which needs the approval of the parliaments of 28 EU member-states. The final compromise will have to allow everyone involved in the conflict to save face, including the EU, Tymoshenko and President Yanukovych.