Ukraine expects next IMF tranche in 2Q18, IMF says no visit scheduled

National Bank of
Ukraine (NBU) Acting Head Yakiv Smoliy said on Dec. 14 he expects an IMF
mission will visit Ukraine in late January to implement the fourth review of
the Extended Fund Facility program, and Ukraine will get the next IMF tranche
under the program in 2Q18. Deputy NBU Head Oleh Churiy added that he expects
two IMF tranches next year amounting to USD 3.0-3.5 bln.

The same day, IMF
spokesman William Murray told a press briefing that “there is no review mission
planned at this stage” and he declined to comment on the size and timing of a
possible next tranche, which is “theoretical at this stage.” Later
on, the IMF press service added that the fourth review is only possible once
Ukraine implements all its commitments for that, adding that “while some
progress has been made, some actions are still pending.”

Alexander
Paraschiy: Ukraine
has indeed done a lot to meet IMF demands. From what the IMF listed yesterday,
Ukraine’s parliament has approved pension reform, the 2018 budget with a
deficit under the IMF’s 2.5% of GDP limit (yet to be signed by the president),
and improved privatization legislation (yet to be approved in second reading).

But Ukraine has yet to approve legislation for the creation of the
anti-corruption court, as well as adjust natural gas rates for households to
import parity level. Without both of these two critical items being
implemented, there is no chance for the next IMF tranche. We do not share the
NBU’s optimism about two IMF tranches next year, but so far we believe that one
tranche in possible in 2Q18 or 3Q18.