Ukraine external goods trade deficit enlarges to USD 0.5 bln in September

Ukraine’s external goods trade deficit enlarged to USD
527 mln in September from USD 273 mln in the prior month, the State Statistics
Service said in its preliminary report published on Nov. 13. The seasonally
adjusted goods trade deficit amounted to USD 343 mln (vs. a USD 467 mln deficit
in August) amid 1.5% m/m growth in adjusted exports and a 1.5% m/m drop in
adjusted imports.

Goods exports advanced 2.8% yoy in September to USD
4.2 bln (vs. a 1.6% yoy drop in August). The growth was mostly driven by
increasing exports of mineral products (21.7% yoy), fats and oils (19.9% yoy),
machinery (12.2% yoy) and grains (2.9% yoy). At the same time, exports of
ferrous metals dropped 7.2% yoy.

Goods imports fell 12.1% yoy to USD 4.7 bln in
September (vs. a 14.3% yoy decline in August). In particular, imports of energy
products plummeted 48.6% yoy and machinery dropped 12.4% yoy, At the same time,
imports of vehicles advanced 10.8% yoy, while exports of foods improved 12.5%
yoy.

In 9M20, the goods trade deficit amounted to USD 2.9
bln (vs. USD 7.2 bln in 9M19). Goods exports slid 5.6% yoy, while goods imports
dropped 14.3% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: All the
major items of Ukraine’s goods exports except ferrous metals advanced in
September. It’s a positive development, but we don’t expect to see consistent
acceleration in goods exports as the situation in the domestic economy and
global markets might change quickly because of the pandemic.

Goods imports remain weak amid low imports of energy
products and low demand for investment goods (machinery). Meanwhile, the import
of consumer goods is growing. The growth in imports of vehicles is likely to
mean a new wave of demand for imported used automobiles.

We don’t expect that the situation in Ukraine’s
external goods trade will change significantly through the end of the year.
Imports will show a two-digit decline year-on-year, while the improvement in
exports will mostly depend on the situation at the global grain market.