Ukraine far behind fulfilling Association Agreement deadline, experts say

The European Commission will review on May 15 its report on Ukraine’s progress in fulfilling 11 requirements for signing the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, the Kommersant-Ukrayina newspaper reported on April 23, citing an anonymous source in the Foreign Affairs Ministry. Afterwards, the report is scheduled to be reviewed on May 27 by the foreign affairs ministers of the European Union (EU) Council, which will decide whether to send the agreement for legal review in preparation for its possible signing.

These deadlines are very tight and don’t allow for flexibility, the newspaper reported. Meanwhile, only one parliamentary session is scheduled until the deadline, on May 14, to approve the necessary legislation.

An independent survey of Ukraine’s progress in fulfilling EU requirements, conducted by the Renaissance Fund and “We are Europeans” NGO, concluded that Ukraine has demonstrated certain progress, but is far from a complete fulfillment of requirements. “In almost all the spheres, the government is making attempts to fulfill criteria for signing,” said Oleksandr Sushko, the director of the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation in Kyiv. “But there aren’t any breakthroughs or decisive changes in any of the blocks.”

Zenon Zawada: Although three weeks remain until the May 15 deadline, the parliament has put itself in a very tough position. It doesn’t meet the last week of the month to allow MPs to work in local districts. The first two weeks of May are vacations to commemorate the May 1 Labor Day, Orthodox Easter on May 5 and the May 9 Victory Day holiday.

We believe there’s a 50/50 chance that the ruling majority will call an extraplenary session to approve the required legislation before May 14, which is the only hope for the Association Agreement to be signed. Approving the bills on May 14 would be too late and not viewed seriously by the EU Commission, in our view.

Holding an extraplenary session depends on the political will of the ruling Party of Regions. An indication that this will isn’t particularly strong is the fact that the majority could have already approved the necessary EU legislation by not delaying the Kyiv City Council elections, which provoked the opposition into blockading the parliament in late March and early April. Prime Minister Mykola Azarov then blamed the opposition for undermining the Association Agreement efforts.

Even if the required legislation is passed, the likelihood of an EU go-ahead is still below 50/50, given that the EU leadership will be looking for decisive reforms, of which there are little. EU leaders also have a bad taste in their mouths with the imprisonment of former PM Yulia Tymoshenko and the eviction of her lawyer, Serhiy Vlasenko, from parliament.