Ukraine GDP decline slows to 1.2% yoy in 4Q15

Ukraine’s real GDP decreased 1.2% yoy in 4Q15, according to UkrStat preliminary estimates released on Feb. 15. At the same, time real GDP increased by 1.5% qoq, based on the report. Ukraine’s real GDP fell 7.2% yoy 3Q15, 14.6% in 2Q15 and 17.2% yoy in 1Q15.

Alexander Paraschiy: The 4Q15 result is much better than we expected (we projected -3.8% yoy for this quarter). And this means that the year-end GDP decline will be only 9.3% yoy, instead of the -10.4% yoy that we estimated previously. Detailed data is not available; however, most likely better industry performance (industrial output slowed to -2.1% yoy in December compared to the -5.0% yoy expected) was the key factor in the better result.  Despite the better 2015 GDP result, we remain skeptical about 2016 prospects. We can rely on neither external demand nor on a potential rebound of domestic consumption and investments. In these circumstances, we are still keeping our projection of 0.6% yoy GDP growth for 2016.