Ukraine GDP declines 1.3% yoy in 3Q13

Ukraine’s GDP fell 1.3% yoy in 3Q13, according to an updated state statistics estimate released on December 10. It was minor improvement over the provisional estimate of a 1.5% yoy drop. Nominal GDP was reported at UAH 392.6 bln, only UAH 5 bln more yoy.

Alexander Paraschiy: The picture of GDP growth did not change much from 2Q13. Ukraine has subdued private consumption (+6.6% yoy), falling government consumption (-2.9% yoy) and declining investment in fixed assets (-7.1% yoy). The only difference is worsened net exports on the back of resumed natural gas imports, which was not the case in 2Q13. All the indicators show the economy does not have any growth drivers for the near future. We still expect some improvement in 4Q13 on the back of a stronger grain harvest, which was postponed for October. We estimate 4Q13 GDP growth to be near zero, and we are keeping our GDP decline forecast for Ukraine at -0.8% yoy in 2013.