Ukraine GDP drop slows to 5.8% in 8M20, ministry estimates

Ukraine’s real GDP dropped 5.8% yoy in 8M20, improving
from a 6.2% yoy decline in 7M20, according to estimates published on Oct. 12 by
the Ministry of Economic Development.

The estimate is based on the General Production Index
(GPI), which takes into account manufacturing results during the period. In
8M20, GPI dropped 6.5% yoy, improving from a 7.3% yoy decline in 1H20, the
ministry estimated. In August, the decline slowed down in some sectors of
industrial production, transportation, trade, construction and agriculture. In
addition, the index of business expectations improved.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The
economic decline is halting rather quickly amid high consumer demand reflected by retail trade growth
and accelerated renewal in construction, which has been prompted by government
spending in road building.

If the government doesn’t resort to strict
nationwide quarantine restrictions amid the recent records in COVID-19
infections, Ukraine GDP might conclude the year at around a 4.5% yoy drop (vs.
3.2% yoy growth in 2019).