Ukraine GDP dropped 5.9% yoy in 5M20, ministry estimates
10 July 2020
Ukraine’s GDP dropped 5.9% yoy in 5M20, deepening from
5.0% yoy decline in 4M20, according to an estimate published on July 9 in the
economy report of the Ministry of Economic Development. The estimate is based
on the General Production Index (GPI), which is based on the manufacturing
results during the period.
In 5M20, GPI dropped 7.3% yoy, deepening from a 6.7%
yoy decline in 4M20, the ministry estimated. On a positive note, the ministry
also noted the declines in most economic activity slowed down in May amid the
eased quarantine restrictions. At the same time, the spread of the coronavirus
around the world resulted in reduced global economic activity, and a recess in
the investment cycle, which in turn had a negative effect on Ukraine’s economy.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: We estimate
that Ukraine’s economy will have declined around 10% yoy in 2Q20 (vs. a 1.3% yoy drop in 1Q20). We expect
the economic downfall to slow down in 2H20, but the economy will remain highly
affected by the adverse situation at the global markets and the unfavorable
investment environment within the country.
Our forecast is for Ukraine’s GDP to drop 5.8% yoy in
2020 (vs. 3.2% yoy growth in 2019).
