Ukraine GDP may grow in 4Q15, economy minister says

The Ukrainian economy might demonstrate growth already in 4Q15, Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius told a Cabinet of Ministers meeting on Aug. 28. A fragile stability has been reached, he said.  “Economic growth could start already in 4Q15, rather than in 2016, as we expected previously,” he said.  In 2Q15, GDP decline slowed to -14.7% compared to -17.2% in 1Q15. On August 11, the ministry projected 2015 GDP to decline 8.9%.

Alexander Paraschiy: After the recent turmoil on the global equity markets, we are less optimistic about Ukrainian economic recovery. For sure, the statistics of real sector will have improved in 2H15 at least due to a low comparative base. However, problems in China promise tightened competition at the markets and, subsequently, will complicate the recovery path for Ukraine.  Against this backdrop, we are lowering our 2015 GDP growth estimate to -10.4% compared to -7.9% projected previously. For 2016, we anticipate zero GDP growth compared to +1.7% growth estimated previously.