Ukraine GDP rises 2.1% in 3Q17

Ukraine’s real GDP rose 2.1% yoy in 3Q17, the State
Statistics Service reported on Nov 14. Real GDP grew 2.5% yoy in 1Q17 and 2.3%
yoy in 2Q17. The World Bank and the IMF project 2.0% GDP growth in 2017.
Ukraine’s Cabinet anticipates 1.8% GDP growth by the year end.

Alexander Paraschiy: Ukraine’s
GDP growth in 3Q17 was stronger than expected, with its sources likely
unchanged from 1H17: investments in fixed assets and private consumption. On
the supply side, services are likely underpinning the growth amid a steady
decline in industry (-0.6% yoy in 3Q17) and poor agri-production performance
(-0.2% yoy). The pattern with consumption and investments will be similar in
4Q17 with the only difference being an expected drop in the grain harvest this year
that will serve as a drag on GDP. Against this backdrop, we still expect 1.9%
yoy GDP growth by the year end. For 2018, we anticipate economic growth
accelerating to 3.5% yoy growth.