Ukraine GDP rises 3.2% in 2019

Ukraine’s GDP rose 3.2% yoy in 2019, slowing from 3.3%
yoy in 2018, the State Statistics Service reported on Mar. 20. Nominal GDP
amounted to UAH 3,975 bln (USD 153.8 bln), increasing from UAH 3,561 bln (USD
130.9 bln) in 2018. Real GDP grew 2.9% yoy (0.8% q/q) in 1Q18, 4.7% yoy (1.0%
q/q) in 2Q18, 3.9% yoy (0.3% q/q) in 3Q18 and 1.5% (0.0% q/q) yoy in 4Q18.

Private consumption, which grew 11.9% yoy (vs. 9.3%
yoy in 2018), remained the major driver of economic growth. Investments surged
14.2% yoy (vs. 16.6% yoy in 2018). The contribution of net exports remained
negative with nominal exports (UAH 1,636 bln) exceeding nominal imports (UAH
1,948 bln). Meanwhile, real export growth of 6.7% yoy (vs. a 1.3% yoy decline
in 2018) outpaced a real import increase of 6.3% yoy (vs. a 3.0% yoy surge in
2018).

On the production side, growth was led by construction
(23.0% yoy), trade (3.6% yoy), and public administration & defence (5.9%
yoy), while weak advancement in manufacturing (1.0% yoy growth) and agriculture
(1.3% yoy) was a restraining factor. The GDP deflator amounted to 8.1% (vs.
15.4% in 2018).

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The
reported 2019 GDP growth of 3.2% yoy met our estimate.
We are observing the current developments, both in the global and domestic economies,
in order to formulate our vision on Ukraine’s economic growth in 2020.