Ukraine GDP rises 5.4% in 2Q21, UkrStat estimates

Ukraine’s 2Q21 real GDP increased 5.4% yoy, after
dropping 2.2% yoy in 1Q21, according to the preliminary estimates by the State
Statistics Service released on Aug. 16. The seasonally adjusted GDP declined
0.8% qoq in 2Q21.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: UkrStat’s
preliminary GDP estimate turned out to be lower than the assessment by the
Ministry of Economic Development (6.0% yoy growth) and the recent estimate by
the National Bank (up 7.5% yoy). With an 11.2% yoy fall of the economy in 2Q21,
the result of 2Q21 means that Ukraine’s output is still far away from its
pre-pandemic level.

Our current forecast of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021
stays at 4.1% yoy (vs. a 4.0% yoy decline in 2020). We understand that this
result is achievable only given an outstanding agricultural result in 2021. At
the moment, the likelihood that Ukraine will see another record-high grain crop
in 2021 is high.