Ukraine GDP slows to 2.4% growth in 3Q21, UkrStat estimates

Ukraine’s 3Q21 real GDP increased 2.4% yoy, slowing from
5.7% yoy growth in 2Q21, according to the preliminary estimates by the State
Statistics Service released on Nov. 15. The seasonally adjusted GDP increased
1.4% qoq in 3Q21.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: This is
another set of disappointing statistics showing the extreme weakness of
Ukraine’s economy. With a 3.5% yoy fall of the economy in 3Q20, the result of
3Q21 means that Ukraine’s output is still below its pre-pandemic level.

The poor recovery of the economy in 3Q21 makes our
forecast of GDP growth in 20201 at 4.1% yoy irrelevant. As we expected, the
performance of the agriculture and construction sectors in 2H21 will be good,
but will not be enough to offset the incredibly weak results in manufacturing.
That said, our current outlook for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 is at 3.2% yoy.