Ukraine GDP to fall 7% in 2014, Ukraine PM says

Ukraine’s agricultural production growth might reach 5% growth in 2014, while the decline in real GDP might reach 7% due to the continued warfare in the east, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk stated on Nov. 18 at Ukrainian-Norwegian Forumin Kyiv.

Alexander Paraschiy: The robust results in agriculture this year will be the main reason why GDP will not fall 10%, as had been widely discussed by many top officials. In 9M14, we observed real GDP shrinking 3.8% yoy and even if GDP contraction speeds up in the last quarter of the year (given the risk of a Russian assault is high), the year-end result will be close to -6% yoy, according to our estimates.

If no further military aggravation in the east happens, we can even see the GDP decline for 2014 in the range of 4-5%. For 2015, we anticipate a gradual recovery of the economy at +1.3% yoy GDP growth through the year.