Ukraine goods trade balance switches to USD 0.2 bln deficit in June

Ukraine’s goods trade balance switched to a deficit of
USD 230 mln in June from a surplus of USD 257 mln in May, the State Statistics
Service announced in a preliminary report on Aug. 13. The seasonally adjusted
goods trade deficit amounted to USD 52 mln (vs. a USD 23 mln deficit in May)
amid a 2.1% m/m growth of adjusted exports and a 2.7% m/m increase in adjusted
imports.

Goods exports jumped 57% yoy in June to USD 5.32 bln
(vs. a 61% yoy increase in May). The accelerated growth was mostly driven by
exports of ferrous metals and mineral products (both doubled year-on-year).

Goods imports increased 37% yoy to USD 5.55 bln in
June (vs. a 55% yoy surge in May). The major contributors to accelerated growth
included energy products (+67% yoy) and vehicles (+58% yoy).

In 1H21, the goods trade deficit amounted to USD 1.3
bln (vs. a deficit of USD 1.5 bln in 1H20); goods exports increased 30.7% yoy
and imports jumped 28.0% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Ukraine’s
goods exports are seeing an incredibly favorable period of high prices for the
country’s major items. This trend is strong enough to counteract the fast
upswing in goods imports prompted by quickly growing energy prices as well as
the purchase of used automobiles abroad by individuals amid another extension
of import tax privileges.

Given the results of the external goods trade in 1H21,
our forecast for the goods trade deficit of USD 8.3 bln looks too high. We
expect the growth rate of both export and import to slow down in 2H21, landing
the goods trade deficit at USD 6.3 bln (vs. a USD 5.1 bln deficit in 2020).