Ukraine goods trade balances out in April

Ukraine’s goods trade balance was in a minor surplus
of USD 32 mln in April, switching from a USD 760 mln deficit in March, the
State Statistics Service announced in a preliminary report on June 14. The
seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit amounted to USD 359 mln (vs. a USD 424
571 deficit in March) amid a 2.9% m/m growth of adjusted exports and a 1.1% m/m
decline in adjusted imports.

Goods exports jumped 40% yoy in April to USD 5.36 bln
(vs. a 27% yoy increase in March). The accelerated growth was mostly driven by
exports of ferrous metals (+66%), mineral products (+77% yoy) and machinery
(+73% yoy). At the same time, exports of animal and vegetable fats declined
1.5% yoy.

Goods imports surged 56% yoy to USD 5.33 bln in April
(vs. 25% yoy increase in March). The acceleration was mostly driven by imports
of vehicles, which increased 2.5 times year-on-year, heavy machinery (+68% yoy)
and energy goods (+45% yoy).

In 4M21, the goods trade deficit amounted to USD 1.3
bln (vs. a deficit of USD 0.9 bln in 4M20), goods exports increased 18.8% yoy
while goods imports advanced 20.3% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The
impressive growth rates of both goods export and import are caused not only by
the low comparative base of the previous year. A surge in exports of ferrous
metals and mineral products is a result of an incredibly favorable price
situation on global markets. Exports of machinery also picked up significantly
as Ukraine’s trading partners are filling in the postponed demand.

A surge in imports of vehicles is likely caused by a
new wave in the purchase of used automobiles abroad by individuals amid another
extension of tax privileges on their imports. In addition, imports of energy
products are restoring fast amid growing global prices.

We expect the goods trade deficit to enlarge in 2021
as the growth of goods imports will outpace export growth. We expect that the 2021
goods trade deficit (according to UkrStat methodology) will swell to USD 8.3
bln (from USD 4.9 bln in 2020).