Ukraine goods trade deficit expands to USD 947 mln in July

Ukraine’s 7M16 goods trade deficit expanded to USD 947.4 mln compared to a USD 491.8 mln surplus a year ago and USD 682.6 mln deficit for 1H16, according to state statistics released on Sept. 14. In 7M16, goods exports fell 10.5% yoy due to falling chemicals (-33% yoy), minerals (-23% yoy) and metals (-22% yoy).  Remarkably, food oil exports surged 21.4% yoy.

Imports dropped only 4.0% yoy in 7M16 following an energy imports plunge of 47% yoy. At the same time, non-energy imports keep growing owing to imports of vehicles (+71% yoy), machinery (+28% yoy) and chemicals (+12% yoy).

Exports to CIS countries decreased 29.9% yoy in 7M16 while exports to the EU increased 5.0% yoy.

Alexander Paraschiy: External trade trends remained mostly unchanged in July from previous months as exports and energy imports were on the decline while non-energy imports recovered. This picture began changing in August due to strengthened natural gas imports at 1.41 bcm compared to 0.41 bcm in July, which means that general imports will also be speeding up. 

This trend is in line with our initial estimates and we are keeping our trade deficit forecast at USD 3.5 bln (according to UkrStat methodology), anticipating further deficit expansion in the upcoming months.