Ukraine goods trade deficit reaches USD 4.6 bln in 10M17

Ukraine’s trade deficit in goods widened to USD 4.6
bln in 10M17 from USD 2.1 bln a year ago, the State Statistics Service reported
on Dec. 15.  Imports increased 27.4% yoy, while exports rose 20.9% yoy.
Goods imports were driven by energy (54% yoy), vehicles
(48% yoy), metals (30% yoy), machinery (26% yoy) and chemicals (16% yoy). 

Goods exports grew in line with mineral products (53%
yoy), food oils (27% yoy), food (22% yoy), metals (17% yoy), machinery (14%
yoy) and grains (12% yoy). Non-energy imports grew 20.6% yoy in 10M17, speeding
up from 19.7% yoy growth in 9M17.

Exports to the EU keep strengthening at 30.3% yoy growth
in 10M17 compared to 29.1% yoy for 9M17. Exports to the CIS countries slowed to
15.8% yoy growth in 10M17 from 17.1% yoy in 9M17.

Alexander Paraschiy: The goods
trade deficit widened in line with our projections. Exports remain strong but
imports sped up on the back of non-energy imports. The November customs
statistics indicate that this trend is being preserved. For 11M17, the trade
deficit already reached USD 5.1 bln (vs. USD 2.3 bln a year ago), according to
the provisional customs report.  The tendency means that our trade deficit
projection of USD 5.6 bln by the end of 2017 (according to UkrStat methodology)
remains on track. 

For 2018, we anticipate the goods trade deficit to
keep growing on the back of a steady recovery in domestic consumption, which
translates into stronger imports. We project a USD 7.2 bln trade deficit in
2018 (according to UkrStat methodology).