Ukraine goods trade deficit swells to USD 0.6 bln in March

Ukraine’s goods trade deficit swelled to a USD 638 mln
deficit in March from a USD 559 mln deficit in the prior month, the State
Statistics Service said in its preliminary report published on May 15. The
seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit enlarged to USD 702 mln from a USD 597
mln deficit in February, amid a 2.2% m/m decline in adjusted exports and a 0.4%
m/m increase in adjusted imports.

Goods exports decreased 4.2% yoy in March to USD 4.1
bln (vs. a 1.8% yoy increase in February). The decline was mostly driven by
falling exports of ferrous metals (-12.7% yoy) and machinery (-13.9%
yoy).  At the same time, grain exports advanced 11.2% yoy, food exports
grew 11.7% yoy, and exports of mineral products climbed 4.5% yoy.

Goods imports declined 4.0% yoy to USD 4.8 bln in
March (vs. a 4.3% yoy drop in February). In particular, imports of energy
products plunged 17.4% yoy, and machinery imports declined 5.2% yoy. Meanwhile,
food imports surged 39.5% yoy.

In 1Q20, the goods trade deficit amounted to USD 1.1
bln (vs. USD 1.5 bln in 1Q19). Goods exports slid 0.2% yoy, while goods imports
dropped 3.4% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The slight
improvement in ferrous metal exports observed in February was very short-lived.
The increased turbulence at the external markets, coupled with quarantine
restrictions in Ukraine, resulted in plunging ferrous metal exports, which
dragged down the overall export result in March.

We expect the decline in both exports and imports to
deepen in April, as this month fully absorbed the negative consequences of
quarantine restrictions both in Ukraine and its trading partners. 

We are observing current developments, both in the
global and domestic economies, in order to formulate our vision on Ukraine’s
external trade through the end of 2020.