Ukraine goods trade reaches USD 0.1 bln surplus in January

Ukraine’s goods trade balance switched to a surplus of
USD 0.14 bln in January from a USD 1.3 bln deficit in the prior month, the
State Statistics Service said in its preliminary report published on Mar. 16.
The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit narrowed to USD 0.53 bln from a USD
0.79 bln deficit in December, amid 4.6% m/m growth in adjusted exports and a
1.5% m/m fall in adjusted imports.

In January, goods exports rose 2.3% yoy to USD 4.2 bln
(vs. a 0.1% yoy increase in December). The growth was driven by grain exports
(21.9% yoy), exports of vegetable and animal fats and oil (29.5% yoy), mineral
products (16.6% yoy) and machinery (12.1% yoy). At the same time, exports of
ferrous metals dropped 27.2% yoy.

Goods imports declined 1.4% yoy to USD 4.0 bln in
January (vs. 6.6% yoy growth in December). In particular, imports of energy products
dropped 15.3% yoy, and vehicle imports declined 10.0% yoy. In addition,
chemical imports slid 4.9% yoy. Meanwhile, machinery imports increased 2.1%
yoy, and food imports surged 34.9% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The
improvement in the goods trade balance in January was mostly due to weak
imports. In particular, the drop in vehicle imports was likely a wearing off
effect from the massive registration of used vehicles that were imported to
Ukraine from the E.U. in 2015-2019. The drop in chemical imports is a negative
development that might indicate a drop in the purchase of fertilizers by
Ukrainian farmers.

As previously, exports are being driven by
agricultural products. On the other hand, the drop in metal exports restrained
goods export growth.

We are observing the current developments, both in the
global and domestic economies, in order to formulate our vision on Ukraine’s
external trade in 2020.