Ukraine goods trade reaches USD 0.6 bln deficit in February

Ukraine’s goods trade balance switched to a USD 560 mln
deficit in February from a USD 138 mln surplus in the prior month, the State
Statistics Service said in its preliminary report published on Apr. 14. The
seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit narrowed to USD 487 mln from a USD 584
mln deficit in January, amid a 2.1% m/m decline in adjusted exports and a 3.9%
m/m fall in adjusted imports.

In February, goods exports rose 1.8% yoy to USD 4.0
bln (vs. a 2.3% yoy increase in January). The growth was driven by exports of
vegetable and animal fats and food oil (31.5% yoy), mineral products (11.3%
yoy) and machinery (10.3% yoy). In addition, exports of ferrous metals inched
up 0.8% yoy.  At the same time, grain exports dropped 9.8% yoy.

Goods imports declined 4.3% yoy to USD 4.5 bln in
February (vs. a 1.4% yoy decline in January). In particular, imports of energy
products dropped 12.2% yoy, vehicle imports plummeted 20.0% yoy, and machinery
imports declined 9.3% yoy. Meanwhile, food imports surged 27.6% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Grain
exports declined in February due to a high comparative base effect. At the same
time, exports of ferrous metals switched to weak growth after a continuous
decline, helping to maintain the overall growth of goods exports. The fall in
goods imports deepened with declining machinery imports and accelerated decline
in imports of vehicles.

We expect goods trade developments in March to be
similar to those in February. The growth of goods exports will slow down, while
the decline in goods imports will deepen further.

We are observing the current developments, both in
the global and domestic economies, in order to formulate our vision on
Ukraine’s external trade through the end of 2020.