Ukraine goods trade worsens to USD 0.38 bln surplus in 10M15

Ukraine’s trade surplus on goods narrowed to USD 381 mln in 10M15, from USD 737 mln in 9M15, UkrStat reported on Dec. 15. The key factor of the surplus decline was strengthened energy imports (USD 1.8 bln in October compared to USD 0.8 bln in September).

In 10M15, Ukraine’s exports fell 31.8% yoy on the back of sliding minerals (-51% yoy), metals (-39% yoy), and machinery (-35% yoy).  Imports declined 32.2% yoy due to metals (-42% yoy), machinery (-33% yoy), chemicals (-27% yoy) and energy (-25% yoy). Exports to the CIS plunged 50.4% yoy for 10M15.  Exports to the EU fell 28.4% yoy. Non-energy imports contracted 34.9% yoy. 

Alexander Paraschiy: The inclusion of Russian natural gas imports (for February-June 2015) in Ukrstat statistics, as well as resumed Russian gas imports in October, significantly narrowed the trade balance. Gas imports are traditionally high in November-December, while export prospects are quite gloomy amid sliding global demand for steel and weak prices for grains. Based on this, we stick to our forecast that Ukraine’s goods trade balance will conclude the year at near zero (or a USD 137 mln surplus), according to UkrStat methodology.