Ukraine grain exports drop 10% yoy in 1HMY2017/18
4 January 2018
Ukraine exported 21.4 mmt of grain in 1HMY2017/18 (the
first six months of the July 2017/June 2018 marketing year), a 10.3% yoy drop,
the Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported, citing government statistics.
Declines were reported in all the major grains (wheat, barley, soybean, corn)
with the exception of rapeseed, which more than doubled to 2 mmt. Ukraine
exported 23.8 mmt in 1HMY2016/17.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Falling
grain exports were in line with the lower harvest of 62 mmt in the 2017
calendar year, which was 6% less than the record-high result of 2016. We
estimate Ukraine will export 42 mmt of grain in MY2017/18, compared to 43.9 mmt
in MY2016/17.
Recall, grain producers successfully lobbied in late
December to amend legislation that would have cancelled VAT reimbursement
for exporters of soybean and rapeseed beginning March 1, which would have been
potentially devastating for these export-oriented producers. Yet the bill still
calls for canceling VAT reimbursement for soybean starting Sept. 1, 2018 and
rapeseed starting Jan. 1, 2020.
On Dec. 29, a group of MPs registered an
alternative bill that will ensure VAT reimbursement on exports of these crops,
which we expect will be adopted. Grain exports are a vital supplier of foreign
currency to the Ukrainian economy, accounting for about 20% of total goods
exports and significantly helping Ukraine’s trade balance.
