27 August 2019
The Ukrainian government is halting its work in
dismantling the fortifications surrounding a ruined bridge in Stanytsia Luhanska
because the Russian-controlled side is not reciprocating, said on Aug. 25 the
Operation Joint Forces press service. The dismantling should have occurred on a
synchronous basis to proceed with restoration efforts, the press service said.
The bridge restoration project is part of Ukrainian President Zelensky’s
initiative to promote peace in the region. Stanytsia Luhanska is a town on the
demarcation line on the Donbas warfront in the Luhansk region. This weekend,
one Ukrainian soldier was killed and three were wounded in armed fighting in
Donbas, which includes the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Zenon Zawada: The
Russians stalling in restoring a single bridge reflects just how much progress
Zelensky can expect to make on a larger scale. Indeed Russian President Putin
is more eager for Zelensky to fail in his peace efforts than he was for
Poroshenko to fail. With Poroshenko, Putin likely had tacit business and even
political agreements, as evidenced by Poroshenko’s late night/early morning meetings with Viktor Medvedchuk,
the Russian president’s confidante in Ukraine. Numerous credible media
organizations accused Poroshenko and his entourage of profiting from illicit
trade with Russia, including military hardware and ñoal. Personally, one
of the largest factories in Poroshenko’s confectionary empire – an asset that
he still controls – is based in Lipetsk, Russia. On the other hand, Zelensky
has less business interests in Russia, having assured the public he has shed
his stake in his entertainment company with Russian distribution.
Even more important, Putin wants to convince
Ukrainians – particularly those in the southeastern regions – that
Euro-Atlantic integration is futile. He wants to convince them that they have
more to gain by integrating with Russia on all fronts. In his logic (rather
flawed), using military aggression will accomplish this. And in order to
convince Ukrainians of the need to reunite with Russia, Putin needs Zelensky to
fail, especially since he will be appealing to the Russophile Southeast with
his planned Western-backed reforms.
Whether Zelensky fully understands this is unclear,
but some of those leading diplomatic efforts think he doesn’t. The best the investment community can hope for is
Zelensky won’t sacrifice Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration in exchange for
short-term political and economic gains to be offered by Putin. It’s not clear
whether he will remain committed.