Ukraine halts cargo traffic to and from Crimea, begins electricity repairs

The Ukrainian government decided on Nov. 23 to prohibit cargo traffic – including ground, rail and sea – between the Ukrainian mainland and Crimea, an order that was implemented the next day by the State Border Service. The same day, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk called for the Prosecutor General’s Office “to hold responsible” those government officials involved in signing contracts to provide Crimea with electricity. Yatsenyuk pointed out that he has already initiated an investigation of the contract and he hopes prosecutors will complete it.

The German government called upon the Ukrainian government to investigate damage to electric supply lines that cut off electricity to occupied Crimea, reported the Deutsche Welle news agency on Nov. 23, citing a spokesman for German’s Foreign Ministry. The German government hopes electricity supply will be renewed and such incidents won’t repeat themselves, he said. The political conflict shouldn’t be resolved as the expense of Crimean residents, in the German government’s view, he said. At the same time, EU sanctions against the Russian Federation will be renewed.

Repairs to one of the four damaged electricity lines will be completed on Nov. 25, which will renew 40 percent of the peninsula’s electricity supply, an Ukrenergo official told Hromadske television on Nov. 24. The same day, Crimean Tatar Mejlis Head Mustafa Dzhemilev told the Deutsche Welle news agency that the activists have allowed crews to conduct all the necessary repairs. At the same time, he said the Tatars’ demands haven’t changed, which consist of the government ceasing electricity supplies and halting trade to the occupied territory for as long as the rights of our citizens are being violated.

Sergei Aksyonov, the prime minister of Russian-occupied Crimea, said on Nov. 23 that electricity shortages on the peninsula could continue until Dec. 22, when the first electric line could be established from Russian territory through the Kerch Strait. “This isn’t 100 percent. The government is using all measures to supply electricity in the established order,” he said, as reported by the crimea.ria.ru news site. “But if you want peace, prepare for war. More likely than not, this period will drag further.” There are enough fuel, food and medical supplies to fulfill the public’s needs, Aksyonov said. In addition, the Russian government will provide reserves “in the shortest timeframe,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: We think a deal was reached between Crimean Tatar and Ukrainian politicians to restore electricity supplies in exchange for blocking cargo traffic. Just how long this arrangement lasts remains to be seen, but we don’t think it has long-term potential. Both the Russian and Ukrainian governments have shown they were satisfied with the status quo in Crimea until the Tatars launched this attack.

Now Ukrainian President Poroshenko will have to play a balancing game between those interested in trade with Crimea – including the Russians – and the Tatars. The prospects for the Ukrainian government sanctioning a cut in electricity supplies to Crimea as close to nil, so long as the Europeans oppose it. So we expect future similar conflicts, including the Crimean Tatar activists cutting electricity supplies again.

The position of the German government, and by extension the EU, is peculiar considering the EU sanctions against Moscow are designed to inflict economic damage. Yet a similar attempt by the Crimean Tatar activists – by cutting electricity supplies – was deemed excessive by German leaders. We see two main motivations here: the Europeans want to restrict punishment to the Putin entourage, or at the very minimum, create the appearance of restricting punitive measures. In addition, the Europeans are relieving pressure on Putin in the context of their conflict with the Islamic State.