Ukraine industrial decline slows to 5.1% in September
20 October 2015
Ukraine’s industrial output decline slowed down to -5.1% yoy in September compared to -5.8% yoy in the prior month, the State Statistics Service reported on Oct. 19. Metals production grew (+3.0% yoy) for the first time since July 2013, effectively reflecting a very low comparative base. Mining also increased (+3.2% yoy), thus maintaining a positive trend that started in August (+0.9% yoy). The decline in utilities production slowed somewhat to -5.4% yoy from -7.5% yoy in the prior month. At the same time, chemicals worsened to -14.9% yoy (from -13.9% yoy in August) and dropping machinery production accelerated to -9.6% yoy (from -6.3% yoy in August).
September’s industrial output in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions increased 16.9% yoy (-4.0% yoy in August) and 13.0% yoy (+41.0% in August), respectively.
In 9M15, Ukraine’s industrial output declined 16.6%, compared to -18.0% yoy in 8M15.
Alexander Paraschiy: Industry is improving somewhat better than we projected, owing to the strong performance of metals and mining. We still remain skeptical regarding an industrial recovery in 2015 in light of the sluggish regional economy,due to Russia’s problems. However, against the backdrop of the stabilized situation in the east, there is a chance that industrial decline will be less than the -14.6% yoy drop that we projected for 2015. Given that volatility might be very high due to a low comparative base, we await more evidence that this positive tendency is indeed sustainable.
